A few days ago, the “Henan Nonferrous Metals Industry and Convergence Conference” was held in Gongyi, Henan Province. A total of 30 representatives from some well-known non-ferrous metals companies including Zhongfu Industrial and People Cable participated. Guo Rong, director of research for nonferrous metals and precious metals of Guotai Junan Futures, said at the meeting that aluminum prices are supported in the short term and that the medium-term direction needs to wait for macro confirmation.
“On the supply side, the market expectation of the increase in electrolytic aluminum supply is clear, but the actual landing depends on profits and policies.” Wang Rong said that the rapid production of new capacity of electrolytic aluminum in the second half of the year depends on the profit of aluminum plants. As of the end of August, the average cost of aluminum plants was close to 14,350 yuan/ton, and only 30% of profitable enterprises. At present, the profitability of the northwest and southwest regions where new capacity is concentrated is not good, and most of the losses or meager profits, unless the spot aluminum price can be maintained at 14700-15000 yuan/ton for a period of time.
Wang Rong believes that if the macro, especially real estate, does not weaken significantly in the second half of the year, then the aluminum market will maintain a marginal shortage of supply, and its price will be strong, and once this short-term rebound is over, the price will turn. Potential. In operation, there are still buying points in the short term, and the macro direction is concerned in the medium term.
In terms of hedging, Wang Rong believes that enterprises need to carry out hedging operations in different directions according to the changes in prices at different stages, and flexibly adjust the positions. The size of the first position of the enterprise should not be too large, generally controlled at 5%-10% of the total value. If the market outlook is in line with expectations, then you can further increase the position and appropriately increase the proportion of hedging. However, if the aluminum price is reversed, you should consider closing the position and avoid unnecessary losses.
